1. **Previous Session’s Closing Prices in the Mainstream Market**
In the previous trading session, domestic 99.9% ethanol prices rose. The mainstream indicative price for 99.9% ethanol in Northeast China was 5,450–5,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. Prices in Jilin were adjusted upward on Monday, while negotiations in Heilongjiang took place yesterday. Fuel ethanol prices in Northeast China remained stable, while prices in Shandong showed a slight weakening trend.
2. **Key Factors Influencing Current Market Price Changes**
**Supply:** Anhydrous ethanol production is expected to experience limited fluctuations, while coal-based ethanol production fluctuations are anticipated to slow slightly. Most fuel ethanol producers are operating at relatively low capacity.
– Operational status of key producers:
– **Hunan, Henan, Anhui, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Shandong** plants are in production.
– **Hongzhan Jixian, Laha, Huanan, Bayan, Tieling, Jidong, Hailun, COFCO Zhaodong Fuel Ethanol, Anhui COFCO, Jilin Fuel Ethanol, Wanli Runda, Fukang** (Lines 1 and 2 halted, Lines 3 and 4 operational), **Yushu, Jiangxi Yufan** (halted), **Guangxi COFCO Fuel Ethanol** (operational), **Huizhou Yuxin** (halted for maintenance, new capacity planned for startup next week), **Jingmen, Hubei** (operational).
**Demand:** This week, buying interest for anhydrous ethanol has been relatively weak. For fuel ethanol, Northeast producers are primarily fulfilling major orders, while other demand remains moderate. In Shandong, transactions yesterday reached 5,330–5,340 yuan/ton, including taxes.
**Cost (Corn):** In Northeast China’s corn market today, grassroots supply volumes continued to increase, boosting market availability. Downstream processing enterprises actively purchased corn, while some traders moderately stockpiled. The price of high-moisture corn rose gradually, leading to increased costs in the trade chain. Overall, Northeast corn prices remained stable, with a slight increase of 10 yuan/ton in certain low-priced regions.
3. **Market Trend Forecast**
– **Anhydrous Ethanol:** Prices are expected to rise in some regions today. At the beginning of the week, major producers in Northeast China mostly increased prices. Today, producers in Northern Jiangsu plan to raise prices by 50 yuan/ton. Cost support from suppliers remains strong, with most ethanol producers in Northeast China operating at low capacity.
– **Fuel Ethanol:** Prices in Northeast China are forecasted to remain stable. Production capacity in the region is low, and most producers intend to maintain stable prices, focusing on fulfilling major and direct supply orders. Other negotiations are expected to remain limited. Market sentiment is 80% stable and 20% bearish, with the median price likely to remain unchanged from the previous trading day.
– **Shandong Market:** Prices are projected to remain stable or show a slight increase. At the beginning of the week, suppliers’ base prices rose moderately, with some transactions exceeding expectations. Although some buying interest weakened slightly yesterday, low-price offers were limited, suggesting prices may stabilize or experience a modest increase.
Post time: Jan-28-2026