1. Previous Session Closing Prices in Mainstream Markets
In the previous trading session, domestic 99.9% ethanol prices saw partial increases. The Northeast 99.9% ethanol market remained stable, while Northern Jiangsu prices rose. Most Northeast factories stabilized after early-week pricing adjustments, and Northern Jiangsu producers reduced low-price offers. 99.5% ethanol prices held steady. Northeast factories primarily supplied state-owned refineries, while other trading activity was subdued with limited rigid demand. In Shandong, 99.5% ethanol prices were stable with few low-price offers, though market transactions remained thin.
2. Key Factors Influencing Current Market Price Movements
Supply:
Coal-based ethanol output is expected to remain largely steady today.
Anhydrous ethanol & fuel ethanol production shows limited fluctuations.
Operating status:
Coal-based ethanol: Hunan (operating), Henan (operating), Shaanxi (halted), Anhui (operating), Shandong (halted), Xinjiang (operating), Huizhou Yuxin (operating).
Fuel ethanol:
Hongzhan Jixian (2 lines operating); Laha (1 line operating, 1 halted); Huanan (halted); Bayan (operating); Tieling (operating); Jidong (operating); Hailun (operating); COFCO Zhaodong (operating); COFCO Anhui (operating); Jilin Fuel Ethanol (operating); Wanli Runda (operating).
Fukang (Line 1 halted, Line 2 operating, Line 3 halted, Line 4 operating); Yushu (operating); Xintianlong (operating).
Demand:
Anhydrous ethanol demand is expected to stay flat, with downstream buyers cautious.
Northeast fuel ethanol factories primarily fulfill state refinery contracts; other demand shows slight growth.
Central Shandong saw weak buying interest yesterday, with transactions at ¥5,810/ton (tax-included, delivered).
Cost:
Northeast corn prices may edge higher.
Cassava chip prices remain elevated with slower volatility.
3. Market Outlook
Anhydrous Ethanol:
Prices likely stable in the Northeast as most factories completed pricing this week. Limited spot availability and rising corn costs support firm offers.
Eastern China prices may hold steady or trend slightly higher, backed by cost support and fewer low-price offers.
Fuel Ethanol:
Northeast: Prices expected stable, with factories prioritizing state refinery shipments and lackluster spot demand.
Shandong: Narrow-range fluctuations anticipated. Downstream restocking remains need-based, though recovering crude prices could boost gasoline demand. High-price transactions face resistance, but low-price supply is tight, capping major price swings.
Monitoring Points:
Corn/cassava feedstock costs
Crude oil and gasoline market trends
Regional supply-demand dynamics
Post time: Jun-12-2025