**1. Mainstream Market Closing Prices from the Previous Trading Session**
Yesterday, the methanol market saw overall narrow fluctuations in trading. In the inland market, the decline in MTO plant operating rates led to a relatively stable market sentiment, with trading moving within a narrow range. In the coastal market, willingness to hold positions at high prices weakened, and most coastal methanol markets experienced a modest downward trend.
**2. Key Factors Influencing Current Market Price Changes**
*Supply:* In the inland market, maintenance in August was mainly concentrated in provinces around Central China, while some major production capacity in the Northwest is expected to undergo maintenance in September. The current situation of relatively low market supply may continue. In the coastal market, overall supply capacity is likely to remain at a low level.
*Demand:* In terms of traditional downstream sectors, some downstream profit margins have recovered, and demand in certain industries has improved slightly. In the olefins sector, operating rates at western olefin enterprises remain generally stable, while eastern olefin enterprises continue to operate at low levels with some fluctuations. Current downstream demand remains generally moderate. In September, some eastern olefin capacity is expected to resume production, while maintenance at some olefin facilities has been postponed. Combined with the traditional “Golden September” demand growth expectations for some downstream sectors, overall downstream demand is likely to improve in September.
*Market Sentiment:* Market sentiment is relatively bullish. The basis stands at 38 (basis calculation method: the average market price in the Taicang region on the day minus the closing price of futures contract MA2609).
**3. Trend Forecast**
Market sentiment remains favorable. Market liquidity may continue to be relatively tight in the near term, leaving room for further upward movement in trading. In today’s market sentiment survey, with the market fundamentals running relatively steadily, 35% of industry participants believe domestic prices will remain stable in the short term. Some geopolitical factors provide supportive upside, supply in certain regions is generally low, and freight rates in some areas remain firm; thus, 41% of participants expect prices to edge up modestly in the short term, with an increase of around RMB 20/ton. On the other hand, some producers have inventory to move, certain capacity is returning online, profit transmission to some downstream sectors has fallen short of expectations, and operating rates at some eastern olefin plants remain low; therefore, 24% of participants see downside risks for producing regions, with a potential drop of around RMB 20/ton. In the near term, attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and maintenance schedules for certain production facilities.
Post time: Aug-21-2026