Domestic Diethylene Glycol (DEG) Market Dynamics in September
As September began, domestic DEG supply has tended to be sufficient, and the domestic DEG market price has shown a trend of first declining, then rising, and then falling again. Market prices have been mainly influenced by supply and demand factors. As of September 12, the ex-warehouse price of DEG in Zhangjiagang market was around 4,467.5 yuan/ton (tax-included), a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.06% compared with the price on August 29.
Week 1: Sufficient Supply, Sluggish Demand Growth, Prices Under Downward Pressure
At the start of September, the concentrated arrival of cargo ships pushed port inventories above 40,000 tons. In addition, the operating status of major domestic DEG plants remained stable, with the operating rate of petroleum-based ethylene glycol plants (a key related product) stabilized at around 62.56%, leading to an overall sufficient DEG supply.
On the demand side, despite the traditional peak season context, the recovery of downstream operating rates was slow. The operating rate of the unsaturated resin industry remained stable at approximately 23%, while the operating rate of the polyester industry only saw a slight increase to 88.16%—a growth of less than 1 percentage point. Due to demand falling short of expectations, downstream buyers showed weak enthusiasm for restocking, with follow-up purchases mainly at a low level based on rigid demand. As a result, the market price dropped to 4,400 yuan/ton.
Week 2: Improved Buying Interest Amid Low Prices, Fewer Cargo Arrivals Drive Prices Upward Before a Pullback
In the second week of September, against the backdrop of low DEG prices, coupled with the continued recovery of downstream operating rates, downstream buyers’ sentiment toward restocking improved to some extent. Additionally, some downstream enterprises had pre-holiday (Mid-Autumn Festival) stock-up needs, further boosting buying interest. Meanwhile, the arrival of cargo ships at ports was limited this week, which further lifted market sentiment—holders of DEG had little willingness to sell at low prices, and market prices rose along with the improved buying momentum. However, as prices climbed, downstream buyers’ acceptance was limited, and the price stopped rising at 4,490 yuan/ton and then pulled back.
Outlook for the Future: Market Prices Likely to Fluctuate Narrowly in Week 3, Weekly Average Price Expected to Stay Around 4,465 Yuan/Ton
It is expected that domestic market prices will fluctuate narrowly in the coming week, with the weekly average price likely to remain around 4,465 yuan/ton.
Supply Side: The operating rate of domestic DEG plants is expected to stay stable. Although there were reports in the market last week that a major producer in Lianyungang might suspend pick-ups for 3 days next week, most northern enterprises have already stocked up in advance. Combined with the expected arrival of more cargo ships at ports next week, the supply will remain relatively sufficient.
Demand Side: Some resin enterprises in East China may conduct concentrated production due to transportation impacts, which could further increase the operating rate of the unsaturated resin industry. However, affected by the previous low DEG prices, most enterprises have already stocked up; coupled with sufficient supply, downstream purchases are still expected to be at a low level based on rigid demand.
In summary, the operating status of downstream enterprises in mid-to-late September still requires close attention. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of sufficient supply, the supply-demand structure will remain loose. It is predicted that the domestic DEG market will fluctuate narrowly next week: the price range in East China’s market will be 4,450–4,480 yuan/ton, with the weekly average price around 4,465 yuan/ton.
Outlook and Recommendations for the Later Period
In the short term (1-2 months), market prices will likely fluctuate within the range of 4,300-4,600 yuan/ton. If inventory accumulation accelerates or demand shows no improvement, it cannot be ruled out that prices will drop to around 4,200 yuan/ton.
Operational Recommendations
Traders: Control inventory scale, adopt a “sell high and buy low” strategy, and pay close attention to plant operation dynamics and changes in port inventory.
Downstream Factories: Implement a phased restocking strategy, avoid concentrated procurement, and guard against risks caused by price fluctuations.
Investors: Focus on the support level of 4,300 yuan/ton and resistance level of 4,600 yuan/ton, and prioritize range trading.
Post time: Sep-19-2025