1. Previous Session Closing Prices in Mainstream Markets
The methanol market operated steadily yesterday. In inland regions, supply and demand remained balanced with narrow price fluctuations in some areas. In coastal regions, the supply-demand standoff continued, with most coastal methanol markets showing minor volatility.
2. Key Factors Influencing Current Market Price Movements
Supply:
Most production facilities in key regions are operating stably
Overall methanol industry operating rates remain high
Production area inventories are generally low with relatively sufficient supply
Demand:
Traditional downstream demand remains moderate
Some olefin enterprises maintain procurement needs
Traders’ inventory holdings have increased, with product ownership gradually shifting to intermediaries
Market Sentiment:
Stalemate in market psychology
Basis differential at 79.5 (calculated as Taicang spot average price minus MA2509 futures closing price)
3. Market Outlook
Market sentiment remains at an impasse. With stable supply-demand fundamentals and supportive price movements in related commodities:
35% of participants expect stable prices in the short term due to:
Smooth producer shipments in main production areas
No immediate inventory pressure
Adequate market supply
Some producers actively realizing profits
Weak traditional demand offset by high olefin operating rates
38% anticipate a slight increase (~¥20/ton) due to:
Tight inventories in some regions
Ongoing olefin procurement expectations
Elevated freight costs amid limited transport capacity
Positive macroeconomic support
27% predict minor declines (¥10-20/ton) considering:
Some producers’ shipment requirements
Rising import volumes
Declining traditional downstream demand
Increased trader willingness to sell
Bearish expectations for mid-to-late June
Key Monitoring Points:
Futures price trends
Operational changes in upstream/downstream facilities
Post time: Jun-12-2025