**METHANOL – MARKET CLOSE:** Methanol prices moved higher across mainstream markets in the previous session. In inland China, supply and demand were balanced, and prices followed a narrow uptick in futures. Along the coast, tensions in the Middle East showed no signs of easing, and with futures on the rise, most coastal markets pushed prices higher again.
**KEY PRICE DRIVERS:**
- **Supply:** In inland areas, operating rates remained high, yet overall inventories stayed low. Coastal regions also continued to see low stock levels in the near term.
- **Demand:** Profit margins for some traditional downstream players narrowed, leading to mild resistance to high prices among a few downstream manufacturers. In the olefins segment, procurement activity was generally modest, though demand held steady. Overall, downstream demand remained relatively sound.
- **Sentiment:** A wait-and-see mood prevailed, with a basis of 197 (calculated as the average market price in the Taicang area minus the closing price of futures contract MA2605).
**TREND FORECAST:**
Sentiment remained stalemated. Fundamentals showed that despite persistently high operating rates, producer inventories stayed low. While some downstream sectors faced margin compression, overall demand remained acceptable, keeping the market in a supply-demand balance.
A market sentiment survey indicated:
- **45%** of participants expect domestic prices to hold steady in the short term, citing stable supply and demand.
- **28%** foresee a modest upward test of around RMB 20/ton, driven by expectations of declining supply in some regions, ongoing geopolitical support for sentiment, and continued favorable logistics between inland and coastal markets.
- **27%** see a downside risk of about RMB 20/ton for producing regions, as some manufacturers need to offload goods and downstream profit transmission falls short of expectations.
Near-term attention should be paid to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
Post time: Apr-17-2026