**1. Mainstream Market Closing Prices from the Previous Trading Session**
Yesterday, the methanol market saw overall narrow fluctuations in trading. In the inland regions, futures moved lower, but market demand improved, leading to regionally adjusted price movements. In coastal areas, supply and demand remained weak, and most coastal methanol markets softened with a downward trend.
**2. Key Factors Influencing Changes in Current Market Prices**
*Supply:* In inland regions, maintenance turnarounds in August are mainly concentrated in provinces around Central China, while some production capacity in Northwest China is gradually returning. Market supply is expected to increase, with notable regional characteristics. In coastal areas, August supply may show a short-term rise followed by a decline, but overall remains at relatively low levels.
*Demand:* For traditional downstream sectors, profit margins for some downstream users have partially recovered, and demand in certain industrial segments has seen slight improvement. In the olefins sector, operating rates at western olefin plants remain stable overall, while eastern olefin plants continue to operate at low levels with minor fluctuations. In summary, overall downstream demand remains moderate.
*Sentiment:* Market sentiment is diverging. The basis stands at -0.5 (basis is calculated as the average market price in the Taicang region on the day minus the closing price of futures contract MA2609).
**3. Trend Forecast**
Market sentiment remains divided. The overall supply-demand balance in the market is relatively stable, but market sentiment is significantly influenced by external factors. In today’s market sentiment survey, as underlying fundamentals are running relatively smoothly, 40% of market participants expect domestic prices to remain stable in the short term. Due to generally low supply in some regions and firm freight costs in others, 29% expect prices to edge up modestly, with an increase of around RMB 20–30/ton. Meanwhile, some producers have inventory to move, some capacity is coming back online, profit transmission to certain downstream segments has fallen short of expectations, and some eastern olefin plants are running at low rates. As a result, 31% of participants see downside risk for producing regions’ prices, with a potential decline of around RMB 20–30/ton. In the near term, attention should be paid to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
Post time: Aug-03-2026