**1. Previous Closing Prices in the Mainstream Market**
The methanol market moved upward overall yesterday. In inland areas, the overall supply was relatively tight while downstream demand remained acceptable, keeping transaction prices at elevated levels. In coastal areas, port liquidity continued to tighten alongside rigid demand procurement, leading to consecutive price increases in most coastal methanol markets today.
**2. Key Factors Influencing Current Market Price Changes**
**Supply:** In inland areas, the market continues to operate with a high operating rate, but inland inventories remain low overall. With both plant startups and shutdowns expected this month, the overall market supply is likely to stay relatively low. In coastal areas, inventories are expected to remain low in the near term.
**Demand:** For traditional downstream sectors, profit margins for some downstream users have narrowed, while overall demand remains stable. For olefins, western olefin enterprises are maintaining operations, but demand from some eastern olefin enterprises is expected to decline. In summary, overall downstream demand is generally moderate, with slight decreases in certain regions.
**Sentiment:** Market sentiment is僵持 (in a stalemate). The basis is 271.5 (basis calculation method: average price in the Taicang area on the day minus the closing price of futures contract MA2609).
**3. Trend Outlook**
Market sentiment is in a stalemate. The fundamental picture remains one of both supply and demand being weak yet relatively balanced, while profit transmission constraints in the methanol industry chain limit further upward momentum. In today’s market sentiment survey:
- **48% of market participants** believe domestic prices will remain stable in the short term, as market fundamentals are operating relatively steadily.
- **32% of market participants** expect a modest price increase in the short term (around RMB 10–20/ton), citing factors such as some refineries being allowed to reduce unit operating rates (which could provide medium-to-long-term support for related product prices), persistently low supply in certain regions, sustained favorable arbitrage windows between inland and coastal markets with room for freight rate increases, and deteriorating international geopolitical conditions.
- **20% of market participants** see downside risk for producing regions (a decline of around RMB 20/ton) due to sales pressure from some producers, weaker-than-expected profit transmission to some downstream users, and anticipated demand declines from certain eastern olefin enterprises.
In the near term, close attention should be paid to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
Post time: Jun-04-2026