**Key price movements from the previous session**
The methanol market experienced an overall decline in the previous trading session. On the inland front, morning futures moved lower, weighing on market sentiment, while procurement by olefin enterprises in the afternoon pushed the transaction center upward. In coastal areas, falling futures and diverging long-short sentiment led to a weaker performance across most coastal markets.
**Key factors influencing current market prices**
**Supply:** In inland regions, operating rates remain high, though overall inventories continue to run at low levels. Coastal areas are also expected to maintain low inventory levels in the near term.
**Demand:** For traditional downstream sectors, profit margins have narrowed for some players, leading to softening demand in certain segments. In the olefin sector, recent purchasing activity has been generally moderate, though overall demand remains sustained. In summary, downstream demand is still fairly solid.
**Sentiment:** Market sentiment is divided. The basis stands at 183 (calculated as the average price in the Taicang area minus the closing price of the MA2605 futures contract).
**Trend outlook**
Market sentiment remains divided. From a fundamental perspective, despite high operating rates, producer inventories are still low. While some downstream segments face tighter margins, overall demand remains acceptable. The market is in a supply-demand balance and is expected to track futures movements with wide fluctuations.
According to a recent market sentiment survey:
- **45% of participants** believe domestic prices will remain stable in the short term, with overall trading activity likely to be light.
- **25% expect a modest upward**, with gains of around RMB 20/ton, supported by expectations of reduced supply in some regions and ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to underpin market sentiment. The price window between inland and coastal markets remains open.
- **30% see downside risk** for producing regions, also around RMB 20/ton, as some producers still need to offload inventory and profit transmission to certain downstream sectors has fallen short of expectations.
Near-term attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and macroeconomic factors.
Post time: Apr-15-2026