This week, the price center of products in the phenol-ketone industrial chain generally trended downward. Weak cost pass-through, coupled with supply and demand pressure, exerted certain downward adjustment pressure on industrial chain prices. However, upstream products showed greater downside resistance compared to downstream ones, leading to a decline in profitability across downstream industries. Although the loss margin of the midstream phenol-ketone industry narrowed, the overall profitability of upstream and midstream products remained weak, while the downstream MMA (Methyl Methacrylate) and isopropanol industries still maintained certain profitability.
In terms of weekly average prices, except for the slight increase in the weekly average price of phenol (an intermediate product), all other products in the phenol-ketone industrial chain recorded declines, with most falling within the range of 0.05% to 2.41%. Among them, upstream products benzene and propylene both weakened, with their weekly average prices dropping by 0.93% and 0.95% month-on-month respectively. During the week, after consecutive slight increases, crude oil futures prices saw an expanded short-term decline. End-market conditions remained sluggish, and downstream cautious sentiment was strong. However, U.S. gasoline blending demand drove up toluene prices, and disproportionation units were shut down due to poor economic benefits, leading to a rebound in benzene prices towards the end of the week. Meanwhile, some idled downstream propylene units resumed operations, slightly enhancing demand support for propylene. Overall, although the raw material end showed a weakening trend, the decline was narrower than that of downstream products.
Intermediate products phenol and acetone mostly traded sideways, with narrow fluctuations in their weekly average price changes. Despite weak cost pass-through, some downstream bisphenol A units resumed operations, and there were expectations of maintenance for Hengli Petrochemical’s phenol-ketone units in the later period. Long and short factors intertwined in the market, leading to a stalemate between buyers and sellers. Downstream products saw a more pronounced downward trend than the cost end due to ample supply and lack of improvement in end-demand. This week, the weekly average price of the downstream MMA industry fell by 2.41% month-on-month, the largest weekly decline in the industrial chain. This was mainly due to weak end-demand, resulting in sufficient spot market supply. In particular, Shandong-based factories faced significant inventory pressure and had to lower quotations to stimulate shipments. The downstream bisphenol A and isopropanol industries also experienced certain downward trends, with weekly average price declines of 2.03% and 1.06% respectively, as the market remained in a low-level adjustment weak cycle amid supply and demand pressure.
Regarding industry profitability, during the week, affected by the bearish impact of increased supply and demand pressure in downstream industries and weak cost pass-through, the profitability of downstream products in the industrial chain showed a downward trend. Although the loss margin of the intermediate phenol-ketone industry improved, the overall theoretical profitability of the industrial chain declined significantly, and most products in the chain remained in a state of loss, indicating weak industrial chain profitability. Among them, the phenol-ketone industry recorded the largest increase in profitability: the theoretical loss of the industry this week was 357 yuan/ton, narrowing by 79 yuan/ton compared with last week. In addition, the profitability of the downstream MMA industry declined the most significantly, with the weekly average theoretical gross profit of the industry at 92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 333 yuan/ton from last week. Overall, the current profitability of the phenol-ketone industrial chain is weak, with most products still trapped in losses. Only the MMA and isopropanol industries have theoretical profitability slightly above the break-even line.
Key Focus: 1. In the short term, crude oil futures prices are likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend, and weak costs are expected to continue passing down. 2. The industrial chain’s supply pressure remains, but the prices of industrial chain products are at multi-year lows, so the downward price space may be limited. 3. It is difficult for end-user industries to see significant improvement, and weak demand may continue to exert negative feedback upstream.
Post time: Nov-14-2025